Not only the stock markets are currently under massive pressure. The price of gold had in recent days make clear. Marked the beginning of September ounce of gold still the all-time high of more
than $ 1,900, is the value today about 14 percent lower. Nonetheless, the long-term outlook continues to be intact. More in this post. One of the talk of a significant correction that lies ahead,
the others assume that the gold price will soon reach astronomical prices. In assessing the further development of the gold price at the moment the divorce spirits. Credit Agricole expects that
purchases and strong physical demand for a safe harbor to keep the price high. The lows are likely to attract buyers, the House and referred to the continuing concerns about the impact of the
Greek debt crisis in the euro zone.
Other hand, is MF Global expects that the price of the precious metal in the coming weeks will continue to move downward. On Wednesday announced the "twist" action of the U.S. central bank -
buying and selling longer-dated Treasuries have shorter running-propped up the dollar, which has pushed the gold price and press will. In addition, evidence of sales were to
recognize by larger investors. Of course also provides MF Global potentially supportive factors such as the crisis in the euro zone and bargains on the lower level.
The stock markets have recovered from their crash in the past week shows that investors are apparently ready again to take some more risk. The commitment of Germany and France to help Greece, and
the rumors that China would join the euro zone to have the help that can abate the search of investors for a safe haven for their money.
This made the price of gold on Thursday fall below the level of 1,800 dollars per ounce. Commerzbank analysts do not believe that it will go much deeper.
The uncertainties regarding the future course of the debt crisis in the euro area would not disappear so quickly. Make higher interest rates, relative to the gold-yielding bonds would be
unattractive, are not likely in the near future.
Bunds also cheaper
The short-term security needs can also be shrunk to see lower prices for bonds: The yield on ten-year German government bonds rose on Thursday temporarily recovered to more than 1.9 percent. In
the days before she had fallen to 1.7 percent. Rising yields (from the buyer's point of view) mean lower prices (owner of view). U.S. bonds also became cheaper: the yield on ten-year U.S.
Treasuries climbed back over the two percent mark. "The news about Greece, however, are merely a postponement of the inevitable, namely the non-payment," said Nordea analyst Morten Hassing
Povlsen to agency Bloomberg. "If that happens, the yields of Treasuries will fall deeply, deeply."
The continuing preference of investors for stocks has added to the gold price per ounce further on Friday. The price of the precious
metal fell by up to 1.4 percent to $ 1,763 per troy ounce, which was near to the biggest weekly loss since March 2009. The dollar-aid from the European central banks for financial houses and the
lack of new bad news in the euro debt crisis ensured the mood to buy on the stock markets. The gold price will probably also be added that in the short term by the U.S. Federal Reserve is not
expected to ease monetary policy, Tom Pawlicki, an analyst at MF Global said. Technical factors also militate in favor that the price of gold could fall in a range up to 1700-1750 dollars per
troy ounce.
In the last week the concern drove an escalation of the debt crisis, investors have achieved in the supposedly "safe haven" gold, and the price of an ounce at times, a record high of $ 1,920.
Since Monday, a slight easing in the European debt crisis makes for a strong recovery in equity markets. Investors are again willing to take risks and layers of gold from their money in stocks,
it was said by traders. Investors were hoping today's meeting of euro finance ministers also agreed on a dispute over guarantees for the new Greece-billion relief.
This assessment was confirmed. In early February had reached a level of 1044 Gold Listing USD. Since then, gold had something more expensive.
Currently there are gold in an interesting chart technical constellation. On the one hand there is a primary since April 2009, a moderate upward trend. On the other hand govern since December 2009 and the highest price at U.S. $ 1226.10 a secondary downtrend. Its upper boundary (currently U.S. $ 1097, would fall) per week is currently exceeded. The outbreak was significant but not yet. The crucial question is therefore whether the upward trend prevail or the shorter downtrend. No later than early April, this decision must fall, because it would cut the two trendlines.
To anticipate: The analysts expect a resolution of the downtrend, and the decision will not take until April. The reason for this belief is still strong, the positive trend overhang which would appear from the longer-term trend indicators. The weighted and rising 52-week moving average line speak for a total of rising price trend. You have to be defended in February this year and are currently at 1049 USD. The medium-term overbought / oversold indicators would signal a slight Aufwärtsbewegungsdynamik that for a positive, if not bullish, gold development speak.
Encryption, Dolby Re-setter to the level at 1070 USD, although it can not be excluded, but also on the daily chart would be modified to improve the outlook for gold again. The short-term overbought / oversold indicators were currently taking place a rotation upwards, so that probably also from this side of the secondary downtrend ascribe to a resolution.
After the analysts at SEB in November 2009 rightly advised against it by buying, they consider now given entry opportunities. The upside potential would see them in the range of U.S. $ 1,200. With the supports at 1070 USD and 988 USD gold is also well covered.
It should be noted is that an investment in gold only as a depot admixture (up to 5 to 10% of total equity) should be understood. Significantly more than U.S. $ 1,200 price potential, the analysts would not expect for this year, however.
Oil and gas before the acid test
Increased oil prices resulted in recent weeks to ensure that the conveyor leading nations produced more oil again. Both the OPEC countries, and Mexico reported 14-month highs in oil production. Despite increased demand in the U.S. is clear, however, it is excess supply, the current price of oil would not begin to rise further.
However, it looks better from the gas. Natural gas inventories in the United States were unexpectedly strong returns in recent weeks, so the stocks currently only 0.7% above the long-term average and therefore below the previous year. A rise in gas prices is expected stricken with it.
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